Are the Blue Jays' playoff hopes already fading? A struggling bullpen and an offense gone silent have put manager John Schneider in an incredibly tough position, leaving fans wondering if a comeback is even possible. But here's the big question: Is it just bad luck, or are deeper issues at play? Let's dive into the details.
In baseball, you can't win if you can't hit, and the Blue Jays have been struggling immensely at the plate. When a team manages only a single hit after the second inning in consecutive games, it severely limits what any manager can do, regardless of their strategic brilliance. It puts immense pressure on the pitching staff and makes every mistake feel magnified.
Looking back at Games 1 and 2 of the American League Championship Series against the Seattle Mariners, we can see this problem clearly. In Game 1, a narrow 3-1 loss, some questioned whether manager John Schneider pulled starting pitcher Kevin Gausman too early. Then, in Game 2, a decisive 10-3 defeat, the debate shifted to whether Schneider left rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage in for too long. But let's be honest: on both nights, the Blue Jays' offense went cold, the bullpen faltered, and a series of unfortunate events – a wild pitch here, a throwing error there, even a foul ball deflecting off catcher Alejandro Kirk's mask – seemed to conspire against them. It felt like nothing was going right.
Schneider's managerial style has evolved since the controversial decision to remove José Berríos early in Game 2 of the 2023 wild-card series against the Minnesota Twins. Back then, he faced accusations of simply following a front-office script, devoid of in-game feel. Now, he seems to be reading the game in real-time and reacting accordingly. But here's where it gets controversial... Even the best in-game management can't overcome erratic and potentially fatigued relievers, which has caused some of his decisions to backfire. It begs the question: Are managers being given too much blame (or credit) when the players on the field ultimately determine the outcome?
Consider Trey Yesavage's performance in Game 2. His fastball velocity dipped to 92-93 mph in the third and fourth innings. That's a significant drop from his season average of nearly 95 mph, which he consistently maintained during his impressive 5 1/3 no-hit innings against the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the Division Series. Schneider admitted he considered pulling Yesavage before he faced the top of the Mariners' order for a third time. However, as the manager explained, "it's tough to really just continue to churn through bullpen arms." This highlights a key issue with how many teams, not just the Blue Jays, manage their pitching staffs in the postseason.
Starters are often pulled at the first sign of trouble, a strategy that can be effective when the relievers are performing well – or even flawlessly, as seen in the bullpen game the Blue Jays used to clinch their series against the Yankees. And this is the part most people miss... The success of this strategy hinges entirely on the reliability of the bullpen.
The Blue Jays' bullpen, however, has been inconsistent throughout the season, even after adding right-handers Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland at the trade deadline. While the team had three days of rest between the Division Series and the League Championship Series, Schneider has used at least four relievers in each of the Blue Jays' six postseason games. In Game 1 against the Mariners, he ended up using five relievers after pulling Gausman with two outs in the sixth inning. It's a heavy workload that could be taking its toll.
Gausman, who had retired 16 consecutive batters, lost his shutout on a home run by Cal Raleigh and then walked Julio Rodríguez. Schneider removed him after just 76 pitches, only one more than he threw in Game 1 of the Division Series when he also encountered trouble in the sixth. This time, Schneider brought in left-hander Brendon Little to face Jorge Polanco, a switch-hitter with fairly balanced splits. The thinking was that Polanco hadn't yet batted right-handed in the game, and the next hitter was a lefty, Josh Naylor.
However, Little threw a wild pitch, advancing Rodríguez to second base. Then, instead of using his signature knuckle-curve to try and induce Polanco to chase a pitch on a 3-2 count, he threw a four-seam fastball, a pitch he used only 1% of the time during the regular season. Polanco crushed it, hitting the ball at 110.7 mph for the go-ahead single. In the aftermath, Gausman seemed accepting of the decision to remove him, stating, "We're in the playoffs. You don't really see guys go that deep into games." But in Game 2, Schneider clearly wanted more innings from Yesavage, partly to avoid overtaxing the bullpen again.
The fifth inning of Game 2 began with Randy Arozarena hitting a 96.8-mph ground ball up the middle. Shortstop Andrés Giménez, a former Platinum Glove winner at second base, fielded the ball cleanly but then threw it into the Mariners' dugout, allowing Arozarena to reach second base. With first base open and no outs, Schneider ordered an intentional walk to Raleigh. He then removed Yesavage rather than allow him to face Rodríguez, who had hit a three-run home run off him in the first inning. Was this the right move?
The new pitcher? "Everyday" Louis Varland, who has now pitched in every one of the Blue Jays' postseason games. Varland struck out Rodríguez but then allowed a three-run home run to Polanco, giving the Mariners a 6-3 lead. The Blue Jays never seriously threatened again.
So much for the Mariners' 15-inning marathon in Game 5 of the Division Series exhausting their pitching staff. The Mariners have also used their relievers heavily, but in the first two games of this series, their bullpen pitched nine scoreless innings – and that's without even using their highest-leverage arms on Monday. The Blue Jays' bullpen, on the other hand, has allowed six runs in 8 1/3 innings while also allowing four of nine inherited runners to score. Tired or not, their relievers need to perform like their Mariners' counterparts and find ways to get outs.
Both Varland and righty Braydon Fisher recorded three strikeouts on Monday but also allowed home runs. Lefty Mason Fluharty might have escaped the sixth inning unscathed, but an unusual play occurred when the Mariners' J.P. Crawford fouled a 3-2 pitch off Kirk's mask. The ball popped straight up in the air. Schneider said Kirk probably could have caught it, but Kirk admitted he lost track of it, adding that fielding a foul ball off his mask is the most difficult play for him. Crawford followed with an RBI single on the next pitch, extending the Mariners' lead to 7-3.
When asked about his relievers, Schneider said, "I'm going to continue to trust everyone that either starts the game or comes in. Sometimes bullpens can be volatile. There's certain situations where you're chasing matchups, you're chasing velo, you're chasing stuff for certain guys. The first two games it hasn't worked out." And in the process, the Blue Jays lost despite strong outings from their two best starters.
Looking ahead, righty Shane Bieber is scheduled to start Game 3 against Mariners righty George Kirby. Righty Max Scherzer is the expected starter in Game 4 against Mariners righty Luis Castillo. Given Bieber's recent struggles and Scherzer's long layoff, the Blue Jays' bullpen will likely continue to shoulder a significant load, presenting Schneider with more difficult decisions.
The last team to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first two games at home was the Yankees against the Atlanta Braves in the 1996 World Series. The Blue Jays' 49 comeback victories during the regular season were the most in the majors, so perhaps they can muster one more comeback. But that will only happen if their offense returns to the form it showed against the Yankees, scoring 34 runs in four games. That kind of run support would give the Blue Jays' bullpen a greater margin for error – and give their manager a chance to start looking like a genius again. Do you think the Blue Jays can turn it around? What changes do they need to make? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
